Wednesday
Apr052006
Hurricane Forecast for 2006
Wednesday, April 5, 2006 at 07:51AM
Weather forecasters are predicting an active hurricane season, which starts June 1.
Weather experts recently held a meeting in the Bahamas to discuss last years deadly hurricane season, and the upcoming hurricane 2006 season.
This year weather experts predict there will be 17 Tropical Storms, 9 Hurricanes and 5 Major Hurricanes.
The question everyone wants to know is - Will this years top last year's record number of 27 named storms, and 14 hurricanes?
When the season started last year, the experts predicted 14 storms for 2005, however the year brought a record 27 storms.
“The 2006 season will be an active one, with 17 named storms, of which nine will reach hurricane strength, and of those, five will be between Category 3 and Category 5 storms,” said William Gray, head of the Dept. of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University.
A Category 3 storm has winds of 111 to 130 mph; a Category 5 has winds greater than 155 mph.
Right at this moment the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico's temperature is at 80 degrees, which is already much too high. During last year's hurricane season, the ocean and Gulf temperature was around 90 degrees, which is not too far from the present reading - and there's still two months to go.
Weather experts say that strong winds usually weaken or turn the hurricanes, however there is no way to predict what the wind speed will be in June.
Hurricanes come in cycles, and we are and have been in a high activity cycle in the Atlantic Basin that began in 1995.
Scientists and weather experts say the currents off the U.S. East Coast have caused a ridge that has steered storms westward over the U.S., especially in 2004 and 2005. Before that, there was a trough that deflected storms away from most of the U.S.
Also contributing to the cycle is the fact that the earth has warmed up “a half-degree centigrade or more” in the last 30 years.
Scientists are still debating whether that is due to ocean circulation changes and natural cycles, versus global warming. Whatever you wish to believe, we are in a hurricane cycle, and the oceans are warmer than they should be.
During last hurricane season, Max Mayfield, the Director of the National Hurricane Center was quite accurate in his predictions, and unfortunately many did not take his warnings seriously.
“The hurricanes that hit the Caribbean, Mexico and the U.S. coasts were major storms days before they made landfall,” Mayfield said. “We were able to give ample warning, and our predictions proved accurate most of the time.”
What Mayfield does not want is for people to go to bed expecting a Category 1 storm but wake up facing a Category 3 or higher storm. “We must continue to hone our abilities and resources to track and predict these storms as accurately and as far in advance as possible,” he said.
A panel of experts assembled by Robert Sheets, former director of the National Hurricane Center, discussed the need for stronger building codes to protect people along hurricane-prone coastlines; the necessity to stockpile emergency supplies of batteries, water and rations; and the importance of heeding evacuation orders early.
One of the U.S. regions that has not been hit lately is the New England region. The last hurricane to hit the region was back in 1938. There are also concerns about this hurricane season affecting New York, Washington, D.C., and other eastern coastal cities.
What would happen if a hurricane were to hit New York? That scenario was described by Nicholas Coch, a professor at Queens College in New York. “You haven’t seen anything yet until the big one hits a major urban center. Subways cannot be used as part of the evacuation picture in cities like Boston or New York,” he said.
The stakes are high in coastal cities, he said. “Engineers are finally waking up to the fact that it’s not the fluid pressure caused by hurricanes but the debris and winds spawned by these storms that break urban structures,” said Coch.
• The 2006 Hurricane Name Lineup: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie and William.
• An Australian meteorologist began giving women’s names to tropical storms before the end of the 19th century. In 1953, the National Weather Service began using female names for storms.
• In 1979, the National Weather Service started using men’s names, too.
• For Atlantic Ocean storms, the names may be French, Spanish or English since these are the major languages spoken in the region.
• The World Meteorological Organization uses six lists of names in its rotation. A name is retired if a hurricane is very deadly or very costly. Katrina, Rita and Wilma are permanently off the list.
• In 2005, the Greek alphabet was used for the first time because the names on the standard list had been exhausted. Tropical Storm Alpha formed last October.
Linda, Travel 2 the Caribbean
Weather experts recently held a meeting in the Bahamas to discuss last years deadly hurricane season, and the upcoming hurricane 2006 season. This year weather experts predict there will be 17 Tropical Storms, 9 Hurricanes and 5 Major Hurricanes.
The question everyone wants to know is - Will this years top last year's record number of 27 named storms, and 14 hurricanes?
When the season started last year, the experts predicted 14 storms for 2005, however the year brought a record 27 storms.
“The 2006 season will be an active one, with 17 named storms, of which nine will reach hurricane strength, and of those, five will be between Category 3 and Category 5 storms,” said William Gray, head of the Dept. of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University.
A Category 3 storm has winds of 111 to 130 mph; a Category 5 has winds greater than 155 mph.
Right at this moment the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico's temperature is at 80 degrees, which is already much too high. During last year's hurricane season, the ocean and Gulf temperature was around 90 degrees, which is not too far from the present reading - and there's still two months to go.
Weather experts say that strong winds usually weaken or turn the hurricanes, however there is no way to predict what the wind speed will be in June.
Hurricanes come in cycles, and we are and have been in a high activity cycle in the Atlantic Basin that began in 1995.
Scientists and weather experts say the currents off the U.S. East Coast have caused a ridge that has steered storms westward over the U.S., especially in 2004 and 2005. Before that, there was a trough that deflected storms away from most of the U.S.
Also contributing to the cycle is the fact that the earth has warmed up “a half-degree centigrade or more” in the last 30 years.
Scientists are still debating whether that is due to ocean circulation changes and natural cycles, versus global warming. Whatever you wish to believe, we are in a hurricane cycle, and the oceans are warmer than they should be.
During last hurricane season, Max Mayfield, the Director of the National Hurricane Center was quite accurate in his predictions, and unfortunately many did not take his warnings seriously.
“The hurricanes that hit the Caribbean, Mexico and the U.S. coasts were major storms days before they made landfall,” Mayfield said. “We were able to give ample warning, and our predictions proved accurate most of the time.”
What Mayfield does not want is for people to go to bed expecting a Category 1 storm but wake up facing a Category 3 or higher storm. “We must continue to hone our abilities and resources to track and predict these storms as accurately and as far in advance as possible,” he said.
A panel of experts assembled by Robert Sheets, former director of the National Hurricane Center, discussed the need for stronger building codes to protect people along hurricane-prone coastlines; the necessity to stockpile emergency supplies of batteries, water and rations; and the importance of heeding evacuation orders early.
One of the U.S. regions that has not been hit lately is the New England region. The last hurricane to hit the region was back in 1938. There are also concerns about this hurricane season affecting New York, Washington, D.C., and other eastern coastal cities.
What would happen if a hurricane were to hit New York? That scenario was described by Nicholas Coch, a professor at Queens College in New York. “You haven’t seen anything yet until the big one hits a major urban center. Subways cannot be used as part of the evacuation picture in cities like Boston or New York,” he said.
The stakes are high in coastal cities, he said. “Engineers are finally waking up to the fact that it’s not the fluid pressure caused by hurricanes but the debris and winds spawned by these storms that break urban structures,” said Coch.
Hurricane Names for 2006, and other Hurricane Trivia
• The 2006 Hurricane Name Lineup: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie and William.
• An Australian meteorologist began giving women’s names to tropical storms before the end of the 19th century. In 1953, the National Weather Service began using female names for storms.
• In 1979, the National Weather Service started using men’s names, too.
• For Atlantic Ocean storms, the names may be French, Spanish or English since these are the major languages spoken in the region.
• The World Meteorological Organization uses six lists of names in its rotation. A name is retired if a hurricane is very deadly or very costly. Katrina, Rita and Wilma are permanently off the list.
• In 2005, the Greek alphabet was used for the first time because the names on the standard list had been exhausted. Tropical Storm Alpha formed last October.
Linda, Travel 2 the Caribbean
Reader Comments